How to weather global warming

6:50am Saturday 26th July 2008

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THE north-south divide will become even more evident in UK gardens as climate change takes hold, scientists and horticulturalists are warning.

Temperatures in the south east could reach 41C in the height of summer by 2080, while in the north they will remain a few precious degrees cooler.

That’s according to the Met Office, which held a joint presentation with the RHS on climate change at the prestigious Hampton Court Palace Flower Show.

Gardeners will have to change their techniques and often their choice of plantings to accommodate the warmer weather, says Guy Barter, head of horticultural advisory services at the RHS.

“Kent, traditionally known as the garden of England, will become the vineyard of England, growing grapes, figs and peaches.

“Apples might be grown in the north while Mediterranean fruits will be grown in the south,” he predicts.

We are likely to experience decreased rainfall in summer, wetter winters and a reduction in the number of frosts. There will be more summer heatwaves, but when rain does fall it’s likely to be heavy.

Its researchers have found that wild cherries are now blossoming two weeks earlier than in the 1970s, poppies are flowering a fortnight ahead of usual flowering times, while rowan, box and cow parsley are all flowering nine to 15 days earlier than they did 20 years ago.

Snowdrops, which traditionally flower in February, have been seen in November, while on average, lawns are having to be cut almost two weeks earlier than seven years ago.

Scientists are predicting that the yield of fruit trees is going to be reduced when the buds fail to break in increasingly mild winters. Coastal erosion in parts of Scotland could endanger plants like seawort, while bulbs such as tulips could suffer if rainfall in January increases by 25 per cent by the 2080s, as anticipated.

Gardeners will have to contend with soil erosion, increased waterlogging and water shortages at different times of the year. There’s likely to be an increase in pests, as there will be insufficient cold weather to kill them off and warmer weather to encourage new species from abroad.

Slugs may not be as much of a pest in the future but aphids and red spider mite will.

Barter predicts that by 2080 northern areas like Yorkshire will have wide-scale orchards and an expansion of vegetable growing. It won't just be harvesting traditional fruit and veg like rhubarb and peas, but gardeners in the north are likely to have more success with salads and soft root plants.

Gardeners in the south are more likely to have to focus on succulents and heat-loving architectural plants such as agaves and cordylines.

If climate change occurs as rapidly as the experts are saying, it means we are going to have to knuckle down and enrich our soil, consider growing drought tolerant plants and – if we want beautiful cottage garden plants, rich orchards and fewer water shortages – perhaps move further north.